The blockades and the reform of the Angolan justice system

  1. Introduction. The focus on justice

The initial vision of the role of justice in Angola was established in the initial constitutional law following independence in 1975, the Constitutional Law of November 11, 1975. This fundamental law considered the courts as organs of State, having the exclusive responsibility of exercising the jurisdictional function with a view to achieving democratic justice (Article 44), ensuring that in the exercise of their functions judges are independent (Article 45).

Interestingly, the basic principle referring to the judiciary is not very different from that currently enshrined in the 2010 Constitution of the Republic of Angola (CRA), despite the changes in the political system that have taken place in the meantime. The courts continue to be sovereign organs with the competence to administer justice on behalf of the people (articles 105 and 174) and “in the exercise of their jurisdictional function, the courts are independent and impartial, being subject only to the Constitution and the law.” (Article 175). There is structural continuity in the essential conceptualization of the judiciary since independence, although its forms and practices have varied over time[1].

In terms of relevance, perhaps the so-called “fight against corruption” announced in 2017 by President João Lourenço has brought a focus to justice that had never existed before, and that is why today it is essential to discuss the reform of justice.

From what can be seen from the summary reference made to the constitutional texts, over time there was no special doctrinal or even practical concern with judges and the application of justice. In fact, in 1977, it became famous for the saying attributed to the then President of the Republic Agostinho Neto, regarding the events of the 27th of May, in which a multitude of people were shot: “We are not going to waste time with judgments[2]”. Justice has always played a secondary role in the main concerns of Angolan governments and probably public opinion.

It was only after the initiation of lawsuits against the “famous” (Filomeno dos Santos, Augusto Tomás, Manuel Rabelais, and Isabel dos Santos) and some accusations and trials that justice became the stage of political struggle and focused attention. It is a very interesting fact that João Lourenço has chosen to hand over the fight against corruption to the ordinary justice and, therefore, challenging it to be effective. Later, the political struggle entered the courts even more, with the famous ruling by the Constitutional Court on UNITA which declared the election of Adalberto da Costa Júnior null and void[3].

These two converging facts, the handing over of the fight against corruption to the ordinary courts and the dismissal of Adalberto da Costa Júnior by the constitutional court, gave rise to two innovative phenomena in the Angolan judicial world.

First, a kind of very strong light was turned on, which began to illuminate the activities of the judiciary. What used to happen in the obscurity and unintelligibility of legal language became visible to the general public, and many defects in the system emerged with the naked eye: slowness, lack of technical specialization or the absence of material means.

Second, the courts became the object of strong attack from all those who did not agree with the decisions or were not afraid of being covered by them. Thus, a large part of the Angolan elite, which is afraid of going to court, began to fiercely criticize the courts, their decisions, their functioning, their independence. The objective of these attitudes is very simple: to delegitimize court decisions, devaluing their weight. Added to this are the bombastic statements of many of the defense lawyers, who do not hesitate to criticize decisions that do not benefit their constituents. At the same time, this dislike and anti-court “campaign” was accelerated by discontent with the constitutional court’s decision regarding UNITA.

Consequently, the courts became a field of political and legal struggle. It is false and wrong to assert that old jargon that “justice and politics don’t mix”. In fact, in Angola they are quite mixed, as in Portugal or the United States[4].

All these facts lead to questioning the role of justice in Angola, underlining, above all, its slowness and eventual politicization. In fact, this discussion turns out to be beneficial because from the questioning, discussion and the need for reform arise.

What should be guaranteed is that this justice, which politics has entered, remains impartial and independent, taking its decisions without influence, in a transparent and technically based way. It is with this desire that Angolan justice could be reformed.

2. The blockades: the legal paradigm, the material means and budget, corruption, the political issue.

In order to propose an adequate reform of the Angolan justice system, it will be necessary, as a matter of priority, to identify the obstacles and impediments to its proper functioning, as it will be in these “Gordian knots” and not in general and abstract declarations that the reformist process should focus.

             We have identified five blocks that impede the proper functioning of justice in Angola:

             1-The inadequate legal paradigm;

             2-Lack of material resources and efficient budget management;

             3- Corruption;

             4- The political issue.

              Let’s analyze, albeit briefly, each of these blocks.

2.1- The inadequate legal paradigm

The first blockage of the Angolan judicial system is the one that cannot be seen, as it involves the entire system and therefore there is no perception of its existence. This is the legal paradigm in which Angolan law moves. It is easy to understand that despite some proximity to Marxist formulas between 1975 and 1992, Angolan law remained essentially identical to Portuguese law, whether in the major legislative bodies, whether in doctrine or training.

In terms of legislation, it is a fact that for decades after independence, Portuguese laws continued to be Angolan laws. The Civil Code and the Code of Civil Procedure are still those received from Portugal in the 1960s, while the Penal Code of the Monarchy and the Code of Criminal Procedure at the beginning of the “Estado Novo” were only replaced in 2021, and by very similar texts, when not copies, of texts approved in Portugal after April 25, 1974.

 If, at the legislative level, Portuguese influence prevails, the same happens at the doctrinal level. Portuguese teachers are the most cited in Angolan jurisprudence. Suffice it to exemplify with the ruling of the Constitutional Court referring to UNITA (Rule No. 700/2021), whose doctrine cited is mainly Portuguese. Antunes Varela, Miguel Bezerra and Sampaio da Nora, Carvalho Fernandes, Abílio Neto, Alberto dos Reis, Ana Prata, all Portuguese, are mentioned to substantiate the deliberation of the judges. Only one Angolan, Raul Araújo, is mentioned. Naturally, this small doctrinal detail reveals how much Angolan law is still subsidiary to Portugal.

The same is true in terms of training. A good part of the Manuals used in teaching is still written by Portuguese authors or written in collaboration between Angolans and Portuguese, which is already an evolution. In constitutional law, the manual of Professor Bacelar Gouveia, Portuguese, or professors Jónatas Machado, Nogueira da Costa and Esteves Hilário, here a mixed collaboration between Portugal and Angola, as in the fundamental manual of administrative law by Carlos Feijó and Diogo Freitas do Amaral. At the same time, it is still regarded as the most prestigious graduation to obtain a master’s or doctorate in law at the universities of Lisbon or Coimbra.

There would be no special problem here if Portuguese law responded to the demands of modernity and its practice were simultaneously translated into something fair and effective. The problem is that Portuguese law, and by absorption of Angolan law, live in a bureaucratic and impractical paradigm. The norms and ways of acting in Portuguese law are out of date, the interpretation of the law has become exaggeratedly subjective, never knowing exactly what is coming, procedural norms imply long trials, and the tendency, in the criminal area, has been to reduce rights of the defendants, reaching a situation in which the processes do not end in good time for justice, nor do the defendants already have adequate defenses and guarantees. Portuguese criminal law has fallen into the worst of all worlds, slow processes, inquisitions and defendants without rights, depending on the common sense of the magistrates and little else. It’s an unfair law. In turn, procedural law was transformed, above all by the famous Coimbra professor Alberto dos Reis, into a too elaborate science to which few insiders have access, cluttering up the processes, and in which the goals of speed and justice ceased to exist.

The Portuguese legal system, in whose paradigm Angola moves, is slow, confused and not very adequate to present times, generally not being fair or fast, leaving everything too much in the hands of the judges. This is the main problem facing the Angolan judicial system and the first blockade to overcome.

2.2-Lack of material resources and efficient budget management

The contention that the Angolan justice system is depleted and has no means has been persistent. In the now distant year of 2017, on May 26, a request from the Angolan Judges Association had entered the Provincial Court of the District of Luanda, with a view to the procedure of a “separate judicial notification” to the Republic of Angola in the persons of its Justicea and Finance ministers. This notification reminded that several legally provided subsidies and other instruments necessary to carry out the work of magistrates were not made available by the political power. According to the description of the judges, the day would not come far when they would be living in houses without electricity and water, and when they would not be able to go to court, as they did not have a car or any other means of travel[5]. The judicial magistrates stated that, since 2013, they have been obliged to defray the cost of work material. Specifically: paper, ink cartridges, photocopies of processed sheets (with the letterhead of the various models used in the courts), travel by bailiffs for the purposes of citations and notifications, purchase of cell phones and a monthly recharge plan to assist with citations/notifications of the lawyers and users, fuel for the generators (in the rooms where they exist). Even at the time, they mentioned that the Judgment Room, located in Zango 3, in Viana, had no regular electricity during the office hours. This made it impossible for the magistrates to fully perform their functions, forcing them to draft the hearings by hand, namely interrogations, trials, procedural instructions, social inquiries… The generator was out of order. Furthermore, due to the distance, the employees who worked there were transported in one of the institution’s vehicles, whose fuel and maintenance was supported at their expense.

The situation has not significantly improved since then, despite the new focus on justice. In July 2021 there were public protests by judges and prosecutors; complained about the “lack of technical conditions and even low salaries (…) The president of the National Union of Magistrates of the Public Ministry (SNMMP), José Buengas, even stated that most of the courts and prosecutors” in Angola operate with money from the magistrates who “take out of their pockets to buy paper and ink. The day you stop doing this and wait for a ream of paper for the entire month to arrive to print all the documents, constituents, lawyers and the population will wait, with all the consequences that may result. [6]

 The State General Budget (SGB) for 2022 foresees an allocation of 1.21% of the revenues for the judicial bodies, equivalent to 113,777,899.457,00 Kwanzas. This represents an increase of more than 100% compared to the year 2020 when only 0.37% of the revenues were imputed to Organs judicial bodies, representing 49,414,027,773.00 Kwanzas. Considering that inflation accumulated in this period will have ranged between 45% and 48%, the truth is that we have a real increase in spending on justice above 50%.

Comparing, in turn, the current year (2021) and the forecast for 2022, we have an expected monetary expenditure of 133.8 billion kwanzas, against 55.9 billion kwanzas in 2021. This corresponds to a nominal increase of 103 .5%. And it corresponds to 1.2%, 0.6% and 0.2% of fiscal expenditure, fiscal expenditure and percentage of GDP, respectively[7].

Therefore, we have here a certain paradox that becomes an obstacle to the efficient functioning of justice. On the one hand, there is a persistent and constant complaint by magistrates, which can be visually proven in many courts, about the lack of material means, on the other, there is an effective effort by the State to increase the means available to the justice sector, having proceeded to a budget that provides for the doubling of spending on justice in two years (2020-2022), which in fact accelerates in the transition from 2021 to 2022.

2.3- Corruption

Corruption in the Angolan judiciary is a little-studied but much talked about phenomenon. A short closed inquiry carried out by this center in relation to corruption in the Angolan magistracy among judicial operators led to the conclusion that the majority believes that judges are influenced by monetary or political reasons (the latter we will see below), and in that sense many decisions are taken on the basis of these influences, disregarding the applicable law. There were even references by magistrates of several attempts to offer gifts or monetary amounts.

This survey does not have a sufficiently large sample to allow scientific conclusions to be drawn, it only gives us an impression of the existing opinions among lawyers, magistrates and court officials.

On another level, the investigative journalist Rafael Marques’ portal, MakaAngola, has told several stories of inexplicable court decisions, which possibly could only have been taken due to external stimuli.[8]

What is certain is that this is a situation that is talked about a lot, but about which there is little information, but it has created an image of legal uncertainty among legal operators and investors and that is why it is essential to overcome it.

2.4- The political issue

On the agenda is the issue of politicization of Angolan courts. There is no day that doesn’t show up a published opinion, generally linked to the opposition, indicating the lack of credibility, above all, of the higher courts, and in these, of the constitutional court, due to its politicization[9].

          The argument focuses on two fundamental axes.

The first axis is linked to the party affiliation of judges. The case of the present President of the Constitutional Court, Laurinda Cardoso, has been invoked by society, as until the moment of her appointment she was affiliated with the MPLA and in addition to being a member of the government of João Lourenço, she was also in higher organs of the party. The fact of having her membership suspended has not absolved her of criticisms of political commitment, especially given that one of her first acts was to sign the aforementioned judgment nº. 700 that removed Adalberto da Costa Júnior from the leadership of UNITA.

The second axis is of a more institutional nature, and is based on the argument that, directly or indirectly, the vast majority of judges end up depending on the nomination of the President of the Republic or of the majority party in the National Assembly, the MPLA. In fact, at the level of the Constitutional Court, the CRA determines that four judges out of eleven are appointed by the President of the Republic and another four by a 2/3 majority in the National Assembly, which the MPLA has always held. To that extent, at least 8 of the 11 judges would be aligned with political power. As for the Supreme Court, the President and Vice-President are appointed by the President of the Republic from among 3 candidates selected by 2/3 of the Counselor Judges in effective functions.

Given these various factors, the feeling of dependence of the judiciary on political power has grown in some public opinion, serving for various attacks that delegitimize judicial decisions.

3. The axes of judicial reform: legal paradigm shift, reinforcement of material resources and new public management, fight against corruption, transparency in politicization: the German model.

Legal paradigm shift: the “de-Berlinization” of Law

The first priority of a reform of the judicial system is the change of the legal paradigm, or in other words, the modification of the legal mentality and the standards used. We argue that the excessive copying of Portuguese models, norms, doctrines and teachers is harmful to Angola, as it does not provide the country’s legal culture with instruments and ways of thinking that are adequate to the concrete challenges in which it is involved.

So, we have to look for new inspirations elsewhere. A wide-ranging investigation should be carried out in relation to cases of stability and/or success in Africa itself, as is the case in Namibia and above all in Botswana. It seems to have a legal logic to verify the type of principles and norms, as well as the judicial organization adopted in Botswana and adapt what is understood for Angola. Another legal order that could be explored in greater depth, particularly with regard to the judicial and procedural organization, as well as criminal law, is Brazil, especially from the perspective of combating corruption and the various normative instruments that it has “imported” of US law.

As far as the fight against corruption is concerned, the Angolan legal system has to “Americanize” itself, investing in the right to prizes, the plea bargain, the sentence agreements, and the specific police forces.

In order to accelerate the paradigm shift at the level of judges, judges should have specialized advisors who study and prepare decisions in accordance with the new legal paradigm.

One suggestion would be to institute a law reform commission not only containing Angolan luminaires advised by Portuguese, as is currently the case, but admitting multinational contributions. Thus, the law reform commission should contain Angolan and Portuguese experts, but also from Botswana, Namibia, Brazil and, if possible, from the United States of America and Great Britain. Most important of all, there is a renewal of the plurality of contributions and meta-legal sources for Angolan law.

Reinforcement of material resources and new management model

Regarding the reinforcement of material resources and a new management model, there will be three items to consider[10].

The first is natural and concerns the strengthening of the State Budget for justice. It should be noted that the government seems to have been sensitive to this aspect, since, as mentioned above, in 2022 we have a projected monetary expenditure of 133.8 billion kwanzas, against 55.9 billion kwanzas in 2021, more than a doubling of the funds allocated to justice, which is to be applauded.

A second step has already been taken, and it is also to be applauded, except for one detail. At issue is Presidential Decree Nº. 69/21, of March 16, which approves the reimbursement scheme attributed to the administration of justice for financial and non-financial assets recovered by them. The underlying idea is positive. It is about delivering to the justice bodies some of the assets obtained in the fight against corruption, creating a stimulus for effective and efficient action in the recovery of assets, in addition to providing justice with means that it would not otherwise have. This disposition is right. The justice bodies must benefit from the assets they seize, only the judges who decide the seizures and losses in favor of the State should have been left out, as it can be argued that their impartiality would be obstructed when deciding that someone loses a certain asset, knowing that eventually a certain magistrate would benefit directly or indirectly from it. Expressly safeguarding this aspect, this idea is to be fostered, and follows on from what we have upheld in previous reports in the sense that it is necessary to place the funds obtained in the fight against corruption at the direct service of the public interest.

Lastly, in addition to the reinforcement of funds, whether through the General State Budget or through assets recovered in corruption processes, a new model for the management of legal funds should be considered that guarantees rationality and efficiency in the allocation of resources.

The handover of management to judges is not supported. But the creation of an autonomous institute with transparent management of the administration of justice, which would manage budget revenues, revenues from the fight against corruption and could have its own revenues linked to the activities of justice. This institute would have professional managers and would be audited by an international auditing firm. Its operation would be decentralized with a manager attached to each district court and higher court.

Thus, in addition to the increase in funds, there would be autonomy in the management of funds from the courts, which would be administered by an institute with professional managers constituted for the purpose and which would work in a decentralized manner in each court.

Fighting Corruption in the Judicial System: an own Police Dependent on the National Assembly

This is a difficult topic. As seen above, it is a topic that many talk about, but there is no concrete evidence. Furthermore, it is complicated to have a system to combat corruption within the judiciary that does not in any way affect the independence of judges or is seen as an intrusion on the judiciary. However, believing in self-regulation in terms of combating corruption in the judiciary does not seem to remedy the problem either, as there will be a tendency towards corporate solutions to cover up.

We are prone to a radical but provisional solution. This solution would be the creation of an Anti-Corruption Police in the Magistracy (PACOM) dependent on the National Assembly; the legislative power is directly dependent on the sovereign popular will and therefore has the legitimacy to syndicate judges. PACOM would be created for seven years, with magistrates’ investigative powers limited to situations of corruption (it would have a very restricted mandate to avoid accusations of interference) and would be controlled by the National Assembly as well as civil society. Control by civil society would be through an American Grand Jury-style system. Any investigation that PACOM decided to carry out against a judicial magistrate would only proceed after being validated by a group of 12 members of civil society who would function as a filter and monitor of the anti-corruption Police’s intentions in relation to the magistrates.

Therefore, the investigation of the corruption of a certain judge would not only be a police decision, but also a decision of society. This system would provisionally operate for seven years, after which self-control systems would be implemented within the magistracy itself, hoping that at the end of that time a new pedagogy and practice would have been adopted.

Transparency in politicization: the German model

The politicization of Angolan justice, especially the higher courts, is the accusation that is most frequently heard today. However, this issue is not typical of Angola, there are several countries, especially when court decisions have political consequences or there is a certain judicialization of politics in which the politicization of courts is a recurrent theme. This is the case in the United States, where President Trump conducted an intense campaign to create a right-wing majority in the Supreme Court and where this court is under intense scrutiny to see whether or not it enters a political drift with such a right-wing majority, noting a strong commitment by its president, John Roberts, to seek balanced solutions in decisions and to avoid these accusations of politicization[11]. Politicization was also one of the most used epithets by former president Lula in Brazil to confront the court decisions that were unfavorable to him regarding the Lava-Jato operation.

Not being an Angolan monopoly, the reality is that the issue of political influence in court decisions has often been brought up. The solution generally suggested to solve this supposed political influence has been the modification of the ways in which the judges of the superior courts are appointed by the political power, be it the executive or the legislature. It is stated that the fact of being the President of the Republic or the qualified majority of two-thirds of the deputies of the National Assembly always amounts to the same: the MPLA designating the heads of the higher courts, and in the case of the constitutional court, its large majority .

As an alternative, it is proposed that there be a self-selection system for the choice of judges, or a public competition/independent commission-style model, and that institutional mechanisms are created to guarantee the independence of judges, which make them autonomous and insulate them from political influence. Basically, these solutions turn out to be corporate: judges choosing judges and judges controlling judges. And to that extent, they have a legitimacy problem. There is no good reason why the judges should choose their peers or that they form a tight circle in which no one has a say.

 The magistracy, like any sovereign body, must have a political justification that legitimizes its choice. In the system idealized by Plato of the philosopher king[12], one could think of a kind of high qualification exams in which those who proved to be the wisest would become judges. We would have the platonic legitimacy of the philosopher-king, which in a way, was also adopted by the Confucian formulas of the mandarinate in China, from the Sui dynasty, and only based on merit after the Song[13]. However, one lives neither in the model idealized by Plato, nor in imperial China, but in democratic states of law. And the reality is that the prevalence of the democratic principle imposes that judges ultimately establish their legitimacy in the democratic process. And to that extent, political power should always intervene in the choice of judges. To remove political power from the judicial choice is to remove democracy from it, hence legitimacy. Political power must be present in the process of choosing magistrates, as that is where its popular and democratic legitimacy derives.

On the other hand, it does not seem that the formula for choosing judges or the control and management bodies are truly determinants of their independence. It turns out to be better to have transparency, to know what each judge thinks and defends and to assess their work by analyzing the grounds of the decisions they take, than to create countless mechanisms that only serve to confuse. It is better to have a President of the Republic or a Parliament appointing a judge, which mediately confers democratic legitimacy to the judge and to know which party the judge belongs to, than to create fictions of independence that only make appointments and decisions opaque.

What is essentially of interest to society is to assess the judge’s independence in their judicial decisions. Therefore, these must be published, known and subject to discussion; apart from that, the judge is a woman or man like any other and this must be assumed and said.

In this sense, the system in force in the Federal Republic of Germany turns out to be the most honest. In this country, which has one of the most reputable magistrates in the world,” magistrates are allowed to be affiliated with political parties as well as publicly speak out on political issues. Judges with aspirations to be appointed to the higher courts may even consider party affiliation to some advantage, particularly if it is in one of the two largest parties (SPD and CDU). In this legal framework there is also no impediment for a judge to hold a position in a political party”[14]. For example, section 36 of the Deutsches Richtergesetz (German Judges Act) allows a judge to stand as a candidate for parliament, granting him the vacation necessary to prepare his election in the last two months before the election, without compensation.

The German system, as bizarre as it may sound, has two advantages. The first one already mentioned is that of transparency. The second is more technical and requires that the law be said in a universally accepted and understandable way, subject to greater discussion and critical publicity. What is intended is that judges are independent technicians in their decisions, so there will be decision models and legal logic that everyone will follow, adopting the highest criteria of the science of law. What matters here is that the judge decides according to the law and in a methodologically correct way, hence the importance of the rules of methodology and interpretation in German doctrine. The aim is to apply a conduct of syndicable reasoning that guarantees autonomy. The training and technical preparation of judges are the guarantee of their independence[15].

It seems to us that this method would be more honest for Angola, a legal requirement and disregard for political aspects that will hardly exist.

Conclusions

Given the above, a real reform of Angolan justice will involve changing the paradigm of legal culture, the “de-Berlinization of law”, looking for other new influences besides the Portuguese ones, such as successful neighboring African countries such as Botswana, in addition to Brazil and the United States.

To this will be added the budget reinforcement and the creation of an autonomous and decentralized institute for the financial administration of justice.

It also advocates its own police based on the National Assembly and with the participation of society to fight corruption

And finally, the assumption of the German model of transparency and technical requirement to guarantee the non-politicization of court decisions, admitting that judges may be affiliated with political parties.


[1] On the evolution of Angolan constitutional texts, see Adérito Correia and Bornito de Sousa, (1996), Angola. Constitutional History. Almedina.

[2] There are numerous references to this statement by Agostinho Neto, see for example Edgar Valles, (2020), 27 May: reconciliation and forgiveness in Angola? PÚBLICO, https://www.publico.pt/2020/05/27/opiniao/noticia/27-maio-reconciliacao-perdao-angola-1918297

[3] Decisoion No. 700/2021 of the Constitutional Court, https://jurisprudencia.tribunalconstitucional.ao/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ACORDAO-No-700.pdf

[4] J.A.G. Griffith,(2010), The politics of the judiciary, Fontana Press; Rui Verde, (2015) Juízes: O Novo Poder

Ensaio sobre a acção e reforma do poder judicial em Portugal. RCP Edições

[5] MakaAngola (2017), A reivindicação dos juízes. https://www.makaangola.org/2017/06/a-reivindicacao-dos-juizes/

[6] Deutsche Welle, Borralho Ndomba (2021), Falta de condições para juízes põe em causa combate à corrupção em Angola, https://p.dw.com/p/3yYSJ

[7] Ministério das Finanças de Angola, https://www.minfin.gov.ao/PortalMinfin/?fbclid=IwAR1C597oUjdNas8WFrR9R4u0B_1gb_NH-82fQEVyUGl52HUBcazWITEYo4I#!/materias-de-realce/orcamento-geral-do-estado/oge2022

[8] Cfr. for exemple, Rui Verde, (2019) Ignorância ou corrupção na justiça, MakaAngola, https://www.makaangola.org/2019/01/ignorancia-ou-corrupcao-na-justica/ or Moiani Matondo, (2020),A droga de justiça, MakaAngola, https://www.makaangola.org/2020/07/a-droga-da-justica/

[9] Example: Sousa Jamba, (2021) Tribunal Constitucional. MakaAngola (2020), https://www.makaangola.org/2020/07/a-droga-da-justica/ or Kajim Ban-Gala (2021) Laurinda Cardoso: antinomia, filiação partidária e incompatibilidade, https://www.correioangolense.co.ao/2021/12/27/laurinda-cardoso-antinomia-filiacao-partidaria-e-incompatibilidade/

[10] See about the topic Nuno Coelho (2015), Gestão dos Tribunais e Gestão Processual, CEJ, http://www.cej.mj.pt/cej/recursos/ebooks/outros/Gestao_Tribunais_Gestao_Processual.pdf and E B McConnell (1991), Court Management: The Judge’s Role and Responsibility, Justice System Journal Volume: 15 Issue: 2.

[11] See analysis SCOTUSBlog. https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/12/the-lives-they-lived-and-the-court-they-shaped-remembering-those-we-lost-in-2021/ 

[12] Eric Brown, (2017) “Plato’s Ethics and Politics in The Republic”, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, Edward N. Zalta (ed.), https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/fall2017/entries/plato-ethics-politics/

[13] Mark Cartwright (2019), The Civil Service Examinations of Imperial China, https://www.worldhistory.org/article/1335/the-civil-service-examinations-of-imperial-china/

[14] Vânia Gonçalves Álvares (2015), O governo da justiça: O Conselho Superior da Magistratura. Universidade Nova. P.33.

[15] On the training and preparation of judges in Germany see: Johannes Riedel, (2013). Training and Recruitment of Judges in Germany. International Journal for Court Administration, 5(2), pp.42–54. DOI: http://doi.org/10.18352/ijca.12

CEDESA Note nº2

The Global Gateway initiative of the European Union and Angola: seize the opportunity now

The European Union (EU) has recently unveiled its Global Gateway project, seen as a European alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The Global Gateway is a €300 billion infrastructure spending plan that aims to boost EU supply chains and trade around the world.

The difference that the EU intends to emphasize compared to the Chinese model of BRI, is that on the European side it will not grant loans, but promote public and private investments, presenting what it considers to be transparent and more favorable financing, especially for developing countries.

The Global Gateway aims to be a more modern version of BRI, focusing on investments in future-oriented and environmentally responsible projects in the digital, healthcare, education, scientific research, renewable energy and other sectors.

It is clear that Africa, and in this, among others, Angola is the logical target of this EU initiative, as it is also where a good part of the Chinese influence through the BRI can be verified. The European Commission does not mention the African market as a priority goal, but it is logical that it should be, as it was the arrival of Chinese financing that most harmed European companies, which often lost market share. And Angola served as a model for the intervention of China in Africa, through the establishment of the so-called “Angolan model”.

The Angolan authorities will have every interest in contacting those responsible for this European Union program to be the first to develop a solid partnership that promotes investments in three fundamental areas for Angola: renewable energies, education and health.

Eventually, the great qualitative leap that one wants to take in Angolan education could be the first bet of this European project. The EU could be the major funder of the qualification of universities and scientific research in Angola, since it is a soft power supporter, and it would be an area in which it has an extremely favorable competitive advantage, easy to the alleged Chinese competition.

On the other hand, an immediate approach by Angola to implement the program will allow the assessment of the seriousness and commitment of the European Union in this program, verifying that it is not a mere advertisement for propaganda purposes, as many claim.

In conclusion, immediate Angolan action is strongly recommended to benefit from the Global Gateway in the area of ​​education.

CEDESA Note nº 1

Invitation to investors: The metals needed for the energy transition exist in Angola

The transition to clean energy needed to avert the worst effects of climate change could trigger an unprecedented demand for metals in the coming decades, requiring up to 3 billion tonnes.

A typical electric vehicle battery, for example, needs about 8 kilograms of lithium, 35 kilograms of nickel, 20 kilograms of manganese and 14 kilograms of cobalt, while charging stations require substantial amounts of copper. For green energy, solar panels use large amounts of copper, silicon, silver and zinc, while wind turbines require iron ore, copper and aluminum[1].

Metal prices have already seen large increases as economies reopen, highlighting a critical need to look into what could constrain production and delay supply responses.

Analyzes of the current production of metals worldwide seem to indicate a gap of 30 to 40% of supply versus demand, meaning that it will be necessary to increase world production.

It is here that Angola may have a new economic opportunity by relaunching the exploration, which will essentially be dormant, for metals. If we look at it, the country has an immensity of metals. The first one is iron, which in the past was heavily exported. Significantly, from the second half of the 1950s to 1975, iron ore was extracted in the provinces of Malanje, Bié, Huambo and Huíla, and several million tons were produced. The civil war naturally disrupted this activity and then the crash in world prices. But everything indicates that currently, the context is different and could be used by the Angolan authorities to promote more investments in ferrous mining.

In relation to the other key metals for the energy transition, it should be noted that Angola has potential for manganese, copper, gold, lead, zinc, tungsten, tin, among others.

Cobalt also appears to be abundant in Angola. A recent study concluded that the copper and cobalt region of Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo extends into Angolan territory by at least 116,000 square kilometres. Apparently, the magnetic anomalies detected by the study favourable signs of prospecting metallic and non-metallic minerals such as iron, diamonds, copper, manganese, titanium, zinc, lead, bauxite and even radioactive minerals and phosphates[2].

This results in an obvious conclusion. Angola is very well placed to take advantage of the exploration of metals necessary for the energy transition. Now investments have to come.


[1] Nico Valckx, Martin Stuermer, Dulani Seneviratne and Ananthakrishnan Prasad, Metals Demand From Energy Transition May Top Current Global Supply, FMI, 2021, https://blogs.imf.org/2021/12/08/metals-demand-from-energy-transition-may-top-current-global-supply/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

[2] Cfr. http://www.sigame-cplp.com/noticias/angola-tem-grandes-depositos-de-cobre-e-cobalto.html

Proposal for a transversal youth policy in Angola

Many countries don’t need a robust youth policy, either because the youth population is not significant, with most socio-economic problems being in the elderly, or because they have healthy economies and societies that easily encourage and incorporate young people.

This is not the case in Angola. The numbers on Angolan youth demand special attention from the political power to this age group. With reference to July 2021, it is estimated that 47.83% of the Angolan population is between 0-14 years old and 18.64% between 15-24 years old; therefore, 66.47% of the population is up to 24 years old, or in other words, about 2/3 of the Angolan population is young. It is an immense and impressive mass of babies, teenagers and young adults that constitute the immensity of the Angolan people.[1]

Fig. 1- Angola population pyramid (2021)

This impressive demographic is joined by unemployment figures. According to the most recent data available, unemployment affects 59.2% of the young population (here considered to be aged 15-24) in the third quarter of 2021, with a year-on-year increase in this situation of 2.8%. It is clear that this number does not reflect those who were somehow absorbed by the informal economy, however, its magnitude will always be remarkable[2].

In fact, from a sociopolitical point of view, it has been verified that the demonstrations against the government policy in Angola, and the activism in social networks, is carried out, in large part, by young people.

Youth is, therefore, a huge force in the Angolan economy and societies, which is on the boil.

These various factors: extremely relevant number of young people in the total population, youth unemployment and socio-political discontent that force the consideration of a transversal and encompassing youth policy for Angola.

***

Youth policy is defined as the government’s commitment and practice to guarantee good living conditions and opportunities for a country’s young population[3]. Youth policy is a strategy implemented by public authorities to provide young people with opportunities and experiences that support their successful integration into society and allow them to be active and responsible members of society and agents of change[4].

In these terms, a youth policy seeks to create opportunities for young people, promoting their participation, inclusion, autonomy, solidarity, in addition to well-being, learning, leisure, employment.

The government’s role will be to launch policies with these goals in relation to youth and to work together with the various actors involved in the information, development and implementation of youth policies, such as: youth councils, youth NGOs, interest groups, groups of young people, young workers, researchers, schools, teachers, employers, medical personnel, social workers, religious groups, media[5].

The model we developed attributes three axes to youth policies:

a) The axis of employment;

b) The axis of sport and leisure;

c) The axis of culture and training.

We understand that a youth policy must translate into measures in these three axes in order to provide young people with an integral and complete personal development.

In Angola there is a Ministry of Youth and Sports (Minjud) whose main function is to assist the President of the Republic in the elaboration and execution of the State’s youth policy (Article 2 of the Organic Statute of the Ministry of Youth and Sports, Presidential Decree no. 228/20, of September 7th).

However, in addition to advertisements or programs with a rhetorical value, there is no vision of a transversal and active youth policy such as is needed in Angola. And such a policy is essential. The relevant news that is noted about the activity of Minjud focus essentially on football and football stadiums.

It is therefore urgent to go further and launch a youth policy that will necessarily cover several ministries and will have to be coherent and consistent. As we mentioned, this youth policy would unfold along three axes, paying attention to employment, sports and culture.

***

It is proposed to adopt a youth policy for Angola described in the following terms.

The youth policy would be transversal to several ministries, not dependent only on one ministry, and therefore necessarily coordinated directly by the President of the Republic. As mentioned, it would have three axes that would complement each other.

• In the first axis, referring to employment, a program to guarantee full employment would be launched for all those aged between 22 and 23 years old and having completed a degree. The State would assume the responsibility to employ them in its structure or to subsidize for a period of time not less than 2 years a workplace in the private sector[6]. Therefore, the State would either ensure employment in its several administrations, institutes or public companies, or it would subsidize private companies for the creation and hiring of jobs for young people. All young graduates aged 22-23, in addition to receiving training and assistance to find work, would have guaranteed paid work, with the State having to pay 100% of their salary in a private company or employ participants in the public sector or support creation of a microenterprise. All participants would receive at least a minimum wage fixed in accordance with the Presidential Decree that regulates the subject adequate to a life with dignity[7]. In a second phase, the guarantee of employment for all young people aged 22-23, regardless of their qualification, would also be studied, although those without formal qualifications should attend training to acquire some ability in art or craft.

• In the second axis referring to sports, an integrated sports project in school and in the community would be promoted. In this context, a proposal should not be developed to do everything everywhere, or as referred to in connection with a previous plan “to involve sport modalities of handball, athletics, basketball, football, volleyball, gymnastics and chess” in all schools[8].

The plan would aim at the rational use of scarce resources and with the search for specialization. Thus, each school would be required to dedicate itself to only one sport and to develop it freely within its midst. They would not aim for national championships, nor for large structures, but they would bet on focus and specialization. Each school with its sport. Only one, but open to all young people. At the same time and in competition with schools, each municipality would also promote a sport open to all young people. We would thus have a sport project for everyone with a specialization from each institution and with no other initial ambition other than to put young people in sport.

• Finally, the third axis dedicated to culture would also have to be based on specialization. Here, efforts would be made to concentrate resources on promoting reading by young people. We would start by adopting a project launched by the Gulbenkian Foundation in Portugal in the middle of the last century and already sporadically adopted in Angola in provincial initiatives, such as the “Giro do Saber” promoted by the Provincial Library of Malanje[9].

Reading for youth based on traveling libraries and street readings would be a project aimed at encouraging young people’s taste and reading habits. The traveling libraries will consist of vans that would travel across the country with volunteers and books offered and would stop at each location allowing the reading of these books and explaining some of them. At the same time, these volunteers would perform street readings of books appealing to youth in a mixed spectacle of reading and music, thus attracting target audiences.

One would look for this reading project to be financed by the penal system. That is, it would give rise to a change in the law that would allow all prison sentences of up to two years for economic and financial crimes to be exchanged for donations of vans, books and volunteer support.

Fig. 2- Description of a transversal youth policy

With these measures in the field of employment, sport sand culture, a youth policy that is so necessary for Angola would be launched.

There is nothing like taking advantage of the present party Congresses to promote and discuss these proposals.


[1] Cfr. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/angola/#people-and-society

[2] https://mercado.co.ao/economia/desemprego-afecta-592-dos-jovens-em-angola-YX1077607

[3] Finn Denstad, Youth Policy Manual, 2009

[4] Conselho da Europa CM / Rec (2015) 3

[5] https://www.coe.int/en/web/youth/about-youth-policy

[6] We have developed proposals for these full-employment programs in other CEDESA reports, see for example https://www.cedesa.pt/2020/11/16/proposta-de-um-esquema-piloto-de-garantia-de-emprego-em-angola/

[7] See the study referred to in the previous note

[8] https://www.angop.ao/noticias/desporto/polidesportivo-desporto-escolar-carece-de-continuidade/

[9] https://www.angop.ao/noticias/lazer-cultura/biblioteca-itinerante-chega-ao-municipio-de-cacuso/

Structural combat against drought in southern Angola: the case of Cunene

The drought in Cunene

The drought in southern Angola is a phenomenon that plagues the region over and over again, causing hunger among broad strata of the population.

As of the end of 2020, the region faced the worst drought in 40 years. According to the spokesman for the World Food Program (WFP) Tomson Phiri, “the country has been experiencing a period of drought since last December, with rainfall below average”[1].

This scenario, which has been repeated, and will likely worsen due to global warming, as the World Bank warns, writing that, “natural hazards in the form of floods, erosion, droughts and epidemics (…) prevent development and are expected to worsen as the climate changes”[2], implies a structuring intervention by public authorities.

The objective of this study is to investigate the structural measures that the Angolan government is developing to present sustainable solutions to the drought problem. We focus on the province of Cunene located in the southern interior of Angola, which has been one of the most affected by drought.

In fact, since Angola became independent, it is only recently that the problem of drought has been taken more seriously by the authorities. Before these projects, the situation was somehow alleviated with water holes, however the suffering of the population remained or gradually worsened. The provincial governor of Cunene, Gerdina Didalelwa, on one occasion confessed that “these drillings have been done empirically and are only spending money”[3]. In other words, drillings can even be carried out, but only when there is professionalism behind it; only after an in-depth study was carried out by companies that have technical skills and a thorough knowledge of the waters.

Structuring projects

In mid-2021, the Angolan government announced the planning and execution of several projects in the province of Cunene, which aim to structurally combat the chronic drought that ravages the south of the country.

Project 1

The first of the projects we are going to mention is the construction of the water transfer system for the Cunene River, starting from the Cafu region.

This project is divided into two batches, the first of which aims to build a pumping system in the Cunene River, pressurized pipeline, open channel from the locality of Cafu to Cuamato and 10 chimpacas[4] (water reservoirs).

With regard to the second batch, the purpose is to build two water channels, from Cuamato, one (west conductor) going to Ndombondola, with 55 kilometers and the other (east conductor) to the municipality of Namacunde with 53 kilometers[5]

The construction work are being carried out by the company Sinohydro Angola, with an estimated budget of more than 44 billion kwanzas, if we include the two batches.

The start of the execution of this project has already taken place and counts on an environmental pact study that includes a protocol of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), as well as the sharing of information with Namibia.

The Cafu project is expected to be completed in the first quarter of next year, and it will benefit approximately 200,000 inhabitants and 250,000 head of cattle.

Project 2

The second project that deserves mention is the construction of the Calucuve dam, located in the municipality of Cuvelai. This earthen dam is 19 meters high and has a storage volume of 100 million m3 of water.

The project’s budget is around 177 million dollars, with the company Omatapalo-Mota-Engil as the responsible contractor, and the construction period is 20 months.

The main purpose of the construction of this work is to supply water to the populations, and it is planned to satisfy the needs of more than 80,000 people, as well as meet the needs of approximately 182,000 heads of cattle.

On the other slopes, it will supply water that will allow irrigation throughout the year in an area estimated at 2,600 ha.;

It will ensure the sustainability of economic and social activities in the project area. It will reduce the problem of seasonal water scarcity in the northwestern part of the Cuvelai basin. And finally, to mitigate or prevent damage caused by floods to assets and activities in the local economy in cities located downstream of the dam (Cuvelai Delta area – Evale).

The lead time is 20 months.

Project 3

As for the third project, the construction of the Ndué dam, it is an undertaking also led by Synohidro Angola, with a construction period of 30 months, and an estimated budget of around 192 million dollars.

It will be a 26 m high earthen dam with a storage volume of 145 million m3 of water, on the Caúndo River upstream of the Ndué.

The main purposes of this project aim to satisfy the domestic needs of approximately 55,000 people, as well as to guarantee the quality of water supply to the population. In addition, it aims to satisfy the needs of approximately 60,000 heads of cattle.

Other equally essential goals are also highlighted, such as:

Provide water to allow year-round irrigation of an estimated 9,200 ha area and ensure the sustainability of economic and social activities in the project area and reduce the problem of water scarcity in the central area of ​​the Cuvelai basin.

Finally, the dam could become an important source of water supply for the province of Cunene.

The execution period is 30 months.

***

A final note also for the recovery of existing dikes and weirs in the municipality of Curoca, which is 334 kilometers from the city of Ondjiva[6].

Table 1- General quantifiable benefits of construction work against drought in Cunene

ProjectsPopulationCattleValue
Project 1200.000250.00044 M USD
Project 280.000182.000177 M USD
Project 355.00060.000192 M USD
TOTAL335.000492.000413 M USD

It appears that in addition to providing irrigation and providing increased possibilities for water distribution, these works will directly benefit 335,000 people and 492,000 heads of cattle, costing around 400 million dollars.

Portuguese participation

The Portuguese participation in these important construction work is relevant. Mota-Engil has a relevant stake (50%) in the consortium that builds the Calucuve dam (Project 1), having won the respective tender. COBA, also based in Portugal, is the supervisor of the Ndúe dam (Project 3). There is thus a significant intervention of Portuguese engineering in these structural projects.

Over the past two years, Mota-Engil has undergone a vigorous restructuring that has been reflected not only in Portugal, but also in Mozambique and Angola. It should be remembered that in mid-2020, the company established a partnership with the Chinese CCCC, which defines its participation of more than 30% in the construction company controlled by the António Mota family[7].

Shortly thereafter, Mota-Engil obtained a contract in partnership for road rehabilitation and construction in the Lundas with its subsidiary, with a value of around 280 million euros. On that occasion, the company underlined that it would reinforce its order book in the market, seeking to maximize the use of the assets that the group has in the country.


[1] https://www.rfi.fr/br/%C3%A1frica/20210326-onu-alerta-sobre-fome-causada-pela-pior-seca-em-angola-em-40-anos

[2] https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/angola

[3] https://www.jornaldeangola.ao/ao/noticias/consequencias-da-seca-no-cunene-com-dias-contados/

[4] https://www.angop.ao/noticias/entrevistas/construcao-da-barragem-do-cafu-a-bom-ritmo-manuel-quintino/

[5] Idem

[6] https://www.angop.ao/noticias/sociedade/barragens-de-caluve-e-ndue-vao-beneficiar-136-mil-pessoas/

[7] https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/empresas/construcao/detalhe/mota-engil-ganha-contrato-de-280-milhoes-em-angola

Angola’s new strategic partners and Portugal’s position

Angola’s new strategic partners: Spain and Turkey

Two recent intense diplomatic exchanges at the highest level point to the emergence of new strategic partnerships for Angola. In a previous report, we warned of realignments in Angola’s foreign policy[1]. Now, what happens is that this realignment continues, and at an intense pace. The President of the Republic João Lourenço is clearly giving a new dynamic to Angola’s foreign affairs, which is not seen to be affected by some internal unrest on the way to the 2022 electoral process.

The most recent examples of the President’s diplomatic activity are Spain and Turkey. The important thing in relations with these countries, is not whether or not there is a visit at the highest level, it is about having an intensity of visits by both parties and clear objectives designed. It can be said that from a mutual perspective, Spain and Turkey are becoming Angola’s strategic partners.

Let’s start with Spain. Last April, the prime minister of Spain, Pedro Sanchez, who barely left the country during the Covid-19 pandemic, visited Angola. The visit was seen as marking a new era in bilateral cooperation between the two countries and led to the signing of four memoranda on Agriculture and Fisheries, Transport, Industry and Trade. The agreement regarding the development of agribusiness was particularly relevant, in order to build an industry that transforms raw material into finished product in the future, relying on the experience of Spanish businessmen. As is well known, agriculture is one of the Angolan government’s areas of investment in relaunching and diversifying the economy[2]. Therefore, this agreement is dedicated to a fundamental vector of Angolan economic policy.

More recently, at the end of September 2021, the President of the Republic of Angola visited Spain where he was received by the King and the Prime Minister. On that visit, João Lourenço clearly stated that he was in Spain in search of a “strategic partnership” that went beyond the merely economic and business sphere[3]. In turn, the Spanish authorities consider Angola as a “priority country”[4].

Now it will be seen how these broad intentions will materialize in practice, but what is certain is that both countries are clearly betting on an increase in both economic and political relations and their declarations and goals seem to have a direction and meaning.

The same kind of intensified relationship is being established with Turkey. Last July, João Lourenço visited Turkey, where he was extremely well received. From then on, it was agreed that Turkish Airlines would fly twice a week from Turkey to Luanda. It was also announced that Turkey has opened a credit line on its Exxim Bank to boost bilateral economic relationship. This means that the Turkish financial system will finance Turkish businessmen to invest in Angola. As early as October 2021, Turkish President Erdogan visited Angola. This visit was surrounded by all the pomp and circumstance and expressed an excellent relationship between the two countries. Like Spain, Turkey has an aggressive strategy for Africa, where it wants to gain space for its economy and political influence. The agreements signed by Erdogan and João Lourenço were seven, namely, an agreement on mutual assistance in customs matters; a cooperation agreement in the field of agriculture; an agreement for cooperation in the field of industry; a joint declaration for the establishment of the joint economic and trade commission; a memorandum of understanding in the field of tourism and a cooperation protocol between the National Radio of Angola and the Radio and Television Corporation of Turkey[5].

The approach with Turkey, like that of Spain, has as an immediate and structuring objective “that [the Turks] bring above all know-how that allows us to quickly and efficiently diversify and increase our internal production of goods and services”, using the words of João Lourenço[6].

In these two challenges by João Lourenço there is an obvious determination, or rather two.

First, seek new sources of investment that support the fundamental diversification of the Angolan economy. This is extremely important, and the Turkish and Spanish economies are properly diverse to be able to correspond to the model intended by Angola.

The second aspect refers to the need Lourenço feels to detach Angola from an excessive relationship with China and Russia, without harassing them, but looking for new partners. The geopolitical weight of the Cold War and the subsequent implementation of the Chinese model in Africa, with which Angola is identified, weigh heavily in the evaluations of foreign ministries and investors. Thus, Angola is looking for new openings and a “detachment” from that previous brand, not least because Russia does not have the financial muscle to make large investments in Angola, and China is in the middle of an economic turmoil. As we already know, “the Chinese economy grew 4.9% in the third quarter of this year, the lowest rate in a year, reflecting not only the problems it is facing with the indebtedness of the real estate sector, but also the effects of the energy crisis.”[7] This means that China needs a lot of Angolan oil, but it will not have financial resources for large investments in Angola.

In fact, the relations between China and Angola and the need for a reassessment of the same, especially in terms of oil supply and the opacity of the arrangements, will have to be a theme for an autonomous report that we will produce in the near future.

Portugal’s position. The ongoing deberlinization

Having established that the importance of the intensification of Angola’s relations with Spain and Turkey is established, an obvious question arises: and Portugal?

Portugal has tried to be Angola’s partner par excellence, and for this it has accommodated itself, in the past, to the several impulses of Angolan governance.

Currently, there are good political relations between Angola and Portugal. Just recently, João Lourenço said: “I was fortunate that during my first term in office we were able to maintain a very high level of friendship and cooperation between our two countries.” He also added that “personal relationships also help. Therefore, over the years, we have been able to build that same relationship with President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and Prime Minister António Costa”.[8] There is no doubt that favorable relations are established between Angola and Portugal. It also helps that Portugal has three ties that are felt every day; historical ties, cultural ties, especially linguistic ties, and emotional ties.

However, despite the satisfaction expressed by the Angolan President regarding the good relations between the two countries, there are structural issues that cast shadows on the relationship and make Portugal’s position less relevant to Angola than in the past, generating some caution on the part of Angola in relation to excessive involvement with Portugal. Actually, there is a decline in the Portuguese position in Angola, vis-à-vis Spain or Turkey, or Germany, France or the United Kingdom. There is an ongoing de-Berlinization of Angola’s foreign policy. João Lourenço sees Portugal as an ally in the CPLP, but not as a gateway or platform to Europe. There, he wants to relate directly to each of the specific European countries. The old idea that pervaded in some European chancelleries that Angolan topics were specific to Portugal and should be dealt with from, or at least, with the Lisbon competition (which we call Berlinization), ended. Each of the European countries now deals with Angola without Portuguese intermediation and vice versa.

This fact results essentially from three factors. One of an economic nature, and two of a political nature.

In the first place, Angola seeks, in its foray around the world, countries with the potential and capital to invest. It is searching for capital to develop its economy. Now Portugal, jumping from crisis to crisis and having a clear lack of capital for its development, will have much less means to move to Angola. And in the famous Portuguese Recovery and Resilience Plan there is nothing specific for investment in Africa or Angola in particular. Consequently, with no provisions highlighted for Angola in the Portuguese Plan, it is clear that the African country will have to go looking for massive investments elsewhere.

However, we believe that this is not the main cause for the relative decline of the Portuguese position in Angolan foreign policy priorities. There are two other reasons, which are interlinked.

In this sense, there is na element that has caused the disquiet of the current Angolan leadership towards Portugal. This element entails in the fact that in the near past, Portugal constituted what the Financial Times of October 19th[9] described as the place where Angola’s rich (and corrupt) elite collected trophies in assets, a kind of playground for the President’s sons José Eduardo dos Santos and other members of the oligarchy. Now, the Angolan government, apparently, looks with some suspicion at Portugal because of this, specially considering the intervention that banks, lawyers, consultants and a whole myriad of Portuguese service providers had in the laundering and concealment of assets acquired with illicitly withdrawn money of Angola. There is a danger that all these entities are making efforts to undermine the famous fight against corruption launched by João Lourenço.

What happened during the years of inspiring growth in Angola, between 2004 and 2014, significantly, is that Portugal acted as a magnet for Angolans’ savings and income. The Angolan ruling elites, instead of investing the money in their country, went to invest it, or merely park it in Portugal, with disastrous consequences for Angola, which found itself without the necessary capital to make its growth sustainable. The reasoning that can be attributed to the Angolan government is that Portugal allowed the Angolan money obtained illicitly to be laundered in its economic and financial system with such depth that it is now very difficult to recover. Ana Gomes, wisely, always warned about this. In fact, if we look at the assets recovered by Angola, with great significance, there has not yet been public news that any of them came from Portugal. There was the 500 million dollars that came from England, but in Portugal, EFACEC was nationalized by the Portuguese government – and that’s okay from the Lisbon’s national interest point of view- but it was realized that Angola would not receive anything from there, as well as one can’t regard a clear path of receiving from other situations.

To this phenomenon is added a second that is presently noted. Lisbon is serving as a platform for the more or less concealed articulation of strong opposition attacks on the Angolan government. Whether through consultants, press or law firms. In this case, unlike possibly in the case of investments and possible money laundering, these activities will take place in accordance with the law and adequate protections of fundamental rights. However, it will create discomfort in the Angolan leadership, which will possibly see a link between the two phenomena, that is, between the fact that Portugal was a safe heaven for Angolan assets obtained illicitly in the past, and now it has become a local of opposition and conspiracy, above all, to the so-called fight against corruption. It is noticed that many of the movements take place in Portugal and its elites continue to help those who were dubbed by João Lourenço as “hornets”, either judicially or in the search for new places to hide their money.

In concrete terms, the episode of EFACEC nationalization combined with the recent judicial decision to “unfreeze” the accounts of Tchizé dos Santos in Portugal, and the generalization of an anti João Lourenço current in large spaces of the Portuguese media, although they constitute decisions or attitudes that are justified in political, legal or ethical terms in Portugal, they are events that reinforce some Angolan distrust of the Portuguese attitude, which can see the former colonial power in a kind of shadow play.

These situations, which have broadened in recent months, are causing some discomfort in Angola, which may consider Portugal as a kind of safe haven for activities that harm the country. Gradually, conspiracies from Portuguese territory abound, such as meetings and other events

It is precisely the reasons mentioned above that lead us to identify some attempt at political distance between the Angolan government and Portugal. There are no easy answers to these equations, although its enunciation has to be made for reflection by all those involved.


[1] CEDESA, 2021, https://www.cedesa.pt/2021/05/18/os-realinhamentos-da-politica-externa-de-angola/

[2] See report CEDESA, 2020, https://www.cedesa.pt/2020/06/15/plano-agro-pecuario-de-angola-diversificar-para-o-novo-petroleo-de-angola/

[3] Deutsche Welle, 2021, https://www.dw.com/pt-002/jo%C3%A3o-louren%C3%A7o-em-espanha-em-busca-de-parceria-estrat%C3%A9gica/a-59344760

[4] Idem note 3.

[5] Presidência da República de Angola, 2021, https://www.facebook.com/PresidedaRepublica

[6] Idem, note 5.

[7] Helena Garrido, 2021, https://observador.pt/opiniao/o-choque-energetico-e-o-orcamento-em-duodecimos/

[8] Observador, 2021, https://observador.pt/2021/10/22/pr-de-angola-ve-relacoes-de-amizade-e-cooperacao-com-portugal-em-nivel-bastante-alto/

[9] Financial Times, 2021, https://www.ft.com/content/4652e15a-f7ba-4d21-9788-41db251c5a76

2022 Angolan elections and the United States

Recently, rumors have circulated in Luanda and received echo in generally well-informed portals[1] about a possible increased interest of the United States in the Angolan elections, which would lead the Western power to demand that the elections have impartial international observers to guarantee the electoral truth, as well as the threat of possible sanctions against the João Lourenço government if it did not comply with these American recommendations. Specifically, it is announced that the Biden Administration has been threatening the application of financial sanctions, visa restrictions and travel bans against government officials who undermine elections in their countries[2]. From there it is extrapolated that it will be doing the same in relation to Angola.

This apparent position represents a break with the relative passivity with which the United States of America in the past has faced the general elections in Angola, at least since 2008, it is necessary to try to understand if this change in US policy verifiably exists and in what terms.

Firstly, the sources we consulted state that they are not aware of any reversal of US foreign policy towards Angola, noting that the rumors essentially originate from documents sent by Angolan Non-Governmental Organizations to the State Department, which has always happened and will happen and also in the usual inquiries that the American Embassy in Luanda carried out, but which it has always carried out in the past and will carry out in the future. Therefore, nothing new.

Secondly, and this is the object of our study, it is interesting to investigate whether the structural conditions of US foreign policy imply a more accentuated intervention/concern with the elections and the situation in Angola, which could lead to serious misunderstandings between the Biden Administration. and the executive of João Lourenço.

The Biden Administration’s foreign policy, curiously, in its broad lines follows the policy adopted by Donald Trump, breaking only in specific aspects, such as the weather emergency or some multilateralism. Thus, Biden’s foreign policy is based on a commitment to dealing with the relationship with China, a pragmatism in most relations and a lack of interest in Africa.

The withdrawal, as it took place, from Afghanistan is a typical example of this approach, in which Americans do not want to get involved in “nation building” projects or actively promoting values ​​in other countries. They now prefer a strategy that benefits them commercially, guarantees stability and helps control China.

The idealism of the neoconservatives who embraced George Bush Jr., in his attempt to build democracies and the rule of law in Iraq and Afghanistan, is no longer part of the American foreign policy guide. So don’t expect this idealism to come to Africa. There will be no interventions in Africa to promote any kind of American values, not even muscular interventions of any kind.

What exists on the North American side is a desire for the African continent to be as stable as possible and the supply of essential raw materials ensured in the most adequate way possible.

This October, in the prestigious Foreign Affairs magazine, they wrote “President Joe Biden’s administration has been similarly slow out of the blocks on Africa. Aside from its focused diplomatic response to the horrific civil war in Ethiopia and a few hints about other areas of emphasis, such as trade and investment, Biden has not articulated a strategy for the continent.[3]

Consequently, in terms of the structural lines of American foreign policy, it appears that with the withdrawal from Afghanistan, any wish for “Nation building” or intervention in a third country that does not directly threaten the national interest has been abandoned.

Additionally, the focus was placed on China and its control and more generally on Asia.

The US State Department’s statement from May this year is very clear on the importance of China and the role it plays in the American approach: “Strategic competition is the frame through which the United States views its relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The United States will address its relationship with the PRC from a position of strength in which we work closely with our allies and partners to defend our interests and values.  We will advance our economic interests, counter Beijing’s aggressive and coercive actions, sustain key military advantages and vital security partnerships, re-engage robustly in the UN system, and stand up to Beijing when PRC authorities are violating human rights and fundamental freedoms. When it is in our interest, the United States will conduct results-oriented diplomacy with China on shared challenges such as climate change and global public health crises[4]”.

If the structuring lines of American foreign policy are those mentioned above, and Africa does not occupy a relevant place, it is worth pointing out, however, what the United States wants or expects from Africa. Essentially, it can be summed up in a colloquial phrase: The US wants Africa not to bother them and provide some economic profits.

Following this strategy, the US has handed over a good part of the anti-terrorist fight to France and counts on African countries to guarantee local stability, pursuing strong alliances with some of them. Only if US national interests and security are affected by Islamic terrorism will the United States intervene strongly. It should be noted that the US also has its trauma here, which occurred in Somalia, and so well portrayed in the beautiful film Black Hawk Down[5], masterfully directed by Ridley Scott. There is no US willingness to get inside any imbroglio in Africa. This idea is reinforced by the donwsizing proposals regarding its Africom (United States Command for Africa).

To this extent, the US has a very practical view of the balance of power and needs for Africa. And in reality its history with Angola demonstrates this. In fact, even when in the 1980s they reportedly supported Jonas Savimbi’s UNITA against José Eduardo dos Santos’ MPLA, they were careful that such support did not disrupt the activities of their oil companies operating in territory dominated by the MPLA government. At the time, Cuba sent an additional 2,000 soldiers to protect Chevron’s oil rigs (in Cabinda). In 1986 Savimbi called Chevron’s presence in Angola, already protected by Cuban troops, as a UNITA “target”. So, we had Savimbi backed by the Americans to invective an American company protected by the Cubans[6]. Later, it was rumored that a company linked to the conservative Dick Cheney, future vice president of George Bush Jr., had a role in the location and death of Jonas Savimbi[7].

This means that the US attitude towards Angola has always been ambivalent, and it will not be now that it will embark on a path of confrontation, when Angola became an important ally for two very realistic reasons.

Firstly, Angola, specially under the leadership of João Lourenço, has played a role of pacification in its area of ​​influence. Remember that Angola helped a peaceful and electoral broadcast in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), tries to establish some peacefulness between the triangle DRC, Uganda and Rwanda, besides having contributed decisively to the recent peace in the Central African Republic (CAR). In fact, in the latter country, President Touadéra highlighted the crucial role played by the Angolan state in achieving peace. Angola is an ally of US peace in Africa and obviously the Americans will not neglect Angola’s diplomatic and military support and collaboration for African tranquility.

It is also a strong bulwark against any penetration of Islamic terrorism.

Secondly, it is clear that Angola is currently pursuing a new foreign policy, intending to “detach itself” from the excessive dependence on China. Now, given its experience with China, which pioneered intervention in Africa and the current attempt to a more Western foreign policy, Angola constitutes an experimental platform par excellence for US policy towards China, where the true implications of this policy will be tested and how far the US effort to counterbalance China will go.

To that extent, an American failure with Angola will be a global failure of its strategic approach to China. Here, as in the Cold War in relation to the Soviet Union, the reality of American action in relation to China will be measured.

Thus, it does not seem that the Biden Administration embarks on any hostility or change in relation to the João Lourenço government, as this does not correspond to American interests in relation to Africa and even in relation to China. All rumors in another sense should be seen as part of the Angolan infighting and not any muscular American positioning.


[1] CLUB-K, 2021,  https://club-k.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=46062:eua-ameacam-sancoes-contra-regimes-africanos-que-recorrem-a-fraude-eleitoral&catid=11:foco-do-dia&lang=pt&Itemid=1072

[2] idem

[3] Foreign Affairs, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/africa/2021-10-08/africa-changing-and-usstrategynotkeeping?utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=lo_flows&utm_campaign=registered_user_welcome&utm_term=email_1&utm_content=20211026

[4] USA State Department, 2021, https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-china/

[5] Black Hawk Down, 2001, https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0265086/

[6] Franklyn, J. (1997), Cuba and the United States: a chronological history

[7] Madsen, W. (2013). National Security Agency surveillance: Reflections and revelations 2001-2013

The question of capital in Angola

1- Introduction: IMF, sound economic policies and capital accumulation

Contrary to what some economic studies and forecasts currently carried out by some more or less unknown consultants, the current Angolan economic policy has solid foundations. This is demonstrated by the recent assessment by the International Monetary Fund regarding the agreement between the fund and Angola. The IMF administration is clear in declaring[1]: “The authorities [from Angola government] have supported the [economic] recovery through sound policies that aim to further stabilize the economy, create opportunities for inclusive growth and protect the most vulnerable in Angolan society.”

It would be difficult to have a better endorsement of government economic policy.

However, macroeconomic stabilization and the resumption of economic growth are different realities. There is need of a certain engine to ensure economic growth. It is known that the essential growth model was presented by Robert Solow (Nobel Prize for Economics in 1987), that explains that growth depends essentially on the accumulation of capital, with the increase in GDP resulting from the increase in the capital stock[2].

It is known that the latest Angolan GDP figures for the first quarter of 2021 are negative by 3.4%. So the question that now arises is: how to transform sound economic policies into capital accumulation and promote GDP growth?

2-Capital in the Angolan economy

The essential growth model of the Angolan economy, at least from 2021 onwards, was not a model based primarily on investment, but on consumption derived from imports and on the direct benefit of capital gains from the high price of oil. This meant that the investment that existed was induced by oil and not extended to the economy as a whole[3]. It should also be noted that a good part of the savings gains at that time was not transformed into domestic investment, having been transferred abroad from Angola. In a colloquial way, there was a sharp flight of capital from Angola to overseas countries, namely Portugal or off-shore tax havens[4].

It is public that this model went bankrupt as of 2014, and led to sharp years of recession after 2015. At the same time, it was found that the contribution of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) to GDP began to decrease from that point on. year (2015). If we look at each year the FCF/GDP was respectively 28.21 %, 26.21 %, 23.24 %, 17.19%. The 2018 number (17.9%) is frightening and makes the discussion about the need to capitalize the Angolan economy more relevant.

Figure 1: Gross Fixed Capital Formation in relation to GDP

“The country has a capital deficit”[5] and this problem has to be resolved so that growth can occur. This aspect has to be one of the guides for future economic policy. A goal must be set to raise the GFCF/GDP rate to higher levels, possibly to the 25/26% that happened in 2007 or 2012, which ensure GDP growth levels (albeit based on oil) of 14% and 8%.  Now a new capitalization not only based on oil has to be carried out.

It’s easy to diagnose. Angola lacks capital and needs strong investment. The answers will be the most costly.

3- Increase capital in Angola

What to do to accumulate and increase capital in Angola?

Our answer is divided into two perspectives, the short-term and the medium-term. Let’s focus on the short term, then make a brief reference to the medium term, although it is clear that there is a continuum, as what is done now has repercussions over time.

The executive has already taken some measures, which we have reported in previous reports[6], such as the Private Investment Law (LIP)-Law no. 10/18, of June 26, which no longer requires partnerships with Angolan citizens or companies from Angolan capital and in its article 14, it guarantees that the State respects and protects the property right of private investors; Article 15 establishes that the Angolan State guarantees all private investors access to the Angolan courts for the defense of their interests, being guaranteed due legal process, protection and security. The range of possibilities for transferring dividends were also expanded. Moreover, in administrative terms, it should be noted that in 2018, all requests for the transfer of dividends above five million dollars (4.3 million euros) were granted to foreign companies operating in the country. And, most importantly, since 2020, the capital import from foreign investors who want to invest in the country in companies or projects in the private sector, as well as the export of income associated with these investments, have been exempted from licensing by the Angolan central bank.

However, this is still not enough, and foreign private investment will take a long time, either because a very turbulent electoral period is starting, or because there is a worldwide distraction with Covid-19. In addition, the executive has not yet communicated with all the worldwide amplification, the opening of Angola for business. Even so, it is essential that the executive maintain the political orientation of openness to foreign direct investment.

More needs to be done in the short term to increase investment in Angola and subsequent economic growth. Below is a list of suggestions.

• The initial suggestion is obvious and is based on strengthening public investment. It is essential that the government becomes an inductor of investment and that the capital gains arising from the rise in oil prices and possible apprehensions in the fight against corruption are applied in reproductive investments with short-term results.

The next two suggestions might be more innovative.

 Let us address the first of the most unorthodox suggestions. As mentioned, a good part of the savings obtained by Angolans in Angola was remitted abroad, decapitalizing the country. Now we have to reverse this.

In this sense, the government should, in the first place, sell the dormant shares and assets or in which there is no very relevant strategic interest, which it has abroad. With the result of this sale, it would constitute an investment fund to be invested within Angola. Thus, the first heterodox proposal to increase the capital available in Angola is to sell what there is abroad that belongs to the State (directly or indirectly) and place it in the Angolan economy. Certainly, Sonangol’s position in Millennium BCP should be sold and transformed into investment capital in Angola, and possibly an indirect stake in Galp, if it is not possible to reach a strategic agreement with the Amorim family to better monetize the Angolan position.

• The second suggestion refers to fighting corruption. It is necessary to get out of a certain delay that entered into and boost the capital recovery.

Thus, the government should directly approach those it calls “hornets” and propose a negotiated solution to their situation. Either they deliver the assets that are abroad for investment in Angola, or they will face long prison terms. In relation to these assets, the method outlined above would be followed: Provided market prices were acceptable, everything would be sold and the capital returned to Angola for investment according to a formula agreed between both parties.

This “negotiation” would not be carried out by common means, but by a special force to be set up in Angola and would have short deadlines, not judicial deadlines.

There will have to be a radicalization in both directions in the fight against corruption. More effective punishment or forgiveness with repatriation. Unlike what happened in the previous repatriation law, there would be no waiting, but there would be a proactive attitude on the part of the executive.

By way of an illustration, the participation of Isabel dos Santos in NOS, that of General Kopelipa in the BIG bank and in several hotel developments, the apartments that the former figures have in Estoril, etc., could be sold. The result of these sales would return to Angola where it would be invested in terms to be agreed between the State and the former owners.

These listed measures could give some boost to the Angolan economy and thus promote economic growth immediately.

At the medium-term level, the essential thing is that there is no rampant corruption,  good communication infrastructures are created, an investor-friendly legal apparatus and fast, non-corrupt courts, an educated workforce (this does not mean having degree courses but the necessary skills) and reasonable taxes. In short, an inviting political and social climate for investment.


[1] IMF, Fifth review under the extended arrangement under the extended fund facility and request for modifications of performance criteria— press release; staff report, and statement by the executive director for Angola, June 2021, available in  https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2021/06/30/Angola-Fifth-Review-Under-the-Extended-Arrangement-Under-the-Extended-Fund-Facility-and-461318

[2] Cfr. Recent reassessment and description in Philippe Aghion, Céline Antonin e Simon Bunel (2021), The Power of Creative Destruction

[3] Cfr. Rui Verde (2021), Angola at the Crossroads. Between Kleptocracy and Development

[4] Cfr. For example: Isabel Costa Bordalo, Angola com 60 mil milhões USD é terceiro em África na fuga de capitais,  https://www.expansao.co.ao/angola/interior/angola-com-60-mil-milhoes-usd-e-terceiro-em-africa-na-fuga-de-capitais-94979.html

[5] Jonuel Gonçalves (2021), Angola: Não é a Covid que está a provocar a crise económica, https://www.dw.com/pt-002/angola-n%C3%A3o-%C3%A9-a-covid-que-est%C3%A1-a-provocar-a-crise-econ%C3%B3mica/a-58859385

[6] CEDESA, (2020), A nova atractividade para o investimento internacional em Angola https://www.cedesa.pt/2020/03/09/a-nova-atractividade-para-o-investimento-internacional-em-angola/

Press freedom, law and common sense

The recent events resulting from the demonstration promoted by the UNITA party last Saturday, in which television elements were allegedly prevented from carrying out their work and attacked, must be seen from an institutional perspective and with common sense, distinguishing several plans.
From the personal and criminal responsibility point of view, it is up to potential victims and their employers to activate the legal mechanisms available for compensation for damages and possible punishments. This accountability is carried out through the Public Ministry and the Courts and must take place there.
A different plan is the institutional one. In this context, common sense must work.
On the one hand, the party organizing the demonstration, confirming what happened, must apologize to the victims and their employers, guaranteeing that in the future it will ensure the free exercise of press freedom in its activities.
On the other hand, televisions, namely, TPA and TV Zimbo, must reaffirm their commitment to press freedom and pluralism, refraining from behavior that violates these constitutional principles, leaving any complaints and afflictions to the Courts, not exercising private justice in the form of retaliation. Common sense and reasonableness must prevail.

Lisbon, September 14th, 2021

Indications and Summer Forecasts for the Angolan Economy

Indications

The latest figures available from the National Institute of Statistics on the Angolan economy point to a decrease in GDP in the 1st quarter of 2021 in the order of -3.4%, an unemployment rate in the same quarter of 30.5%, and a annual inflation rate for the month of July 2021 of 25.72%[1]. None of these figures that reflect macroeconomic magnitudes are encouraging in the short term.

However, there are other economic and financial realities to consider in order to have a global view of the movement underway in the Angolan economy, and which allow for a more optimistic perspective.

To begin with, in terms of the budget balance and public debt, essential elements of the support program of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the expectation is that the 2021 budget balance will be positive, possibly above 2% of GDP (further on we will present our prediction). In relation to public debt, as we had predicted in previous reports, its sustainability is consolidated, as recognized by the IMF representative in Angola very recently (see our forecast below)[2].

In terms of exchange rate with reference to the month of July 2021, the Kwanza has already appreciated 1.8% against the dollar and 6.1% against the euro, since January 2021, breaking a strong period of strong devaluation started in 2018. Furthermore, 3.5 years after exchange rate flexibility, the gap between formal and informal market rates is below the 20% target announced by the central bank at the time of liberalization, between 7% and 8% for the dollar and euro respectively. Note that at the time prior to liberalization, the same gap was 159% and 167%.

Figure 1 – Kwanza Exchange Rate Variation against the Dollar and Euro (July 2021)

Currently, some sectors are already announcing an increase in the profitability of exports due to the favorable exchange rate policy. This is the case of cement, where Pedro Pinto CEO of Nova Cimangola assures that “To boost exports, the devaluation of the currency helped, because all the costs that the company has in national currency, in dollars, were lower and, in this way, the competitiveness of the company to place products on the international market. In other words, all those products that we continue to buy in Kzs and that have not suffered large price variations in dollars were lower and, therefore, allowed the company to have greater profitability with exports.[3]

Also a reference to PRODESI (Program to Support Production, Diversification of Exports and Substitution of Imports), which has generated more than USD 29 million since the beginning of the year. As the main exported products, emphasis is placed on cement, beer, glass packaging, bananas, juices and soft drinks and sugar[4].

These movements are reflected in the trade balance. Angola’s trade balance recorded, in the 1st half of 2021, a surplus of USD 8,381.9 million[5], an increase of 40.2 % compared to the results recorded in the 2nd half of 2020 (USD 5,978.8 million)[6]. Within this framework, there was an increase in exports of 25%, naturally still influenced by the increase in exports from the oil sector of 28.4%.

Figure 2 – Angola’s Trade Balance and Trade Relations with China

But there is also a significant increase in trade with one of Angola’s main trading partners, China. “Trade between Angola and China increased 23.9% in the first half of 2021, to US$10,550 million (€8,985 million), compared to the same period last year”[7]. According to Gong Tao, Chinese ambassador to Angola, despite the adverse effects caused by the covid-19 pandemic, Chinese companies remain interested in investing in Angola, highlighting the recent construction of factories, one dedicated to the production of tiles and another qualified for the production of energy and water meters.

2021 Summer Forecasts

In modeling the perspectives we present here, several factors are taken into account, among which we highlight the main ones. The first element is the calculation of the oil price (always a determining factor in the Angolan economy). We assume that the price of Brent will maintain a slight upward trend, standing at a level between USD 65 to USD 75 per barrel. A relative stabilization or possible appreciation of the Kwanza against the dollar and the euro is also part of our model, which makes it possible to reverse some of the falls in the past that were merely nominal due to the more flexible exchange rate. We anticipate that the post-Covid-19 world recovery will boost the Angolan economy’s exports, as is already happening with China. Finally, we anticipate that the environment for foreign investment will gradually improve as a result of legislative reforms and the commitment of political power. We have as a recent example the several advertisements coming from Turkey. At the end of July 2021, Angola and Turkey signed 10 cooperation agreements, in the fields of economy, trade, mineral resources and transport, having already announced an increase in the trade balance with Angola to a value of around USD 500 million[8].

From the point of view of obstacles, it is worth mentioning the immense lack of capital. This is the main element for any sustained recovery, and also the inexistence of economic diversification[9] and the persistence of administrative bureaucracy.

All things considered, our model predicts that by the year 2021 the Angolan economy will come out of recession, and GDP growth will reach between 1.4% and 1.75%.

Our model points to a budget surplus between 2.3% and 2.75%, depending on the evolution of the oil price until the end of the year. And considering the evolution of the Kwanza exchange rate, our forecast is that in 2022, the public debt/Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio will be below 100%, achieving greater consolidation.

Figure 3 – CEDESA Model – Forecasts for the Angolan Economy

Consequently, the initial period of strong adjustment and contraction of the Angolan economy is expected to come to an end this year, with no more shocks and global control of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The special case of Unemployment

We understand that unemployment is a special case that should be treated differently, both statistically and in terms of public policies. In terms of statistics, it should be better ascertained who is occupied with informal productive paid activities and who cannot effectively obtain any paid work they want. We should avoid statistical biases that disturb the proper understanding of reality.

On the other hand, it is clear that it will not be the market or the private economy that will solve the problem of lack of employment in the short term, especially for young people. To that extent, the authorities are urged to develop a Keynesian-type employment promotion program, if necessary using available capital from the fight against corruption, as we have advocated in other reports. The state has to spend money on job creation.


[1] Cfr. https://www.ine.gov.ao/

[2] Cfr. https://www.sapo.pt/noticias/atualidade/representante-do-fmi-em-angola-afirma-que_611bf099d1bccf29fd83b48c

[3] https://mercado.co.ao/grandes-entrevistas/a-desvalorizacao-da-moeda-permitiu-que-a-empresa-tivesse-maior-rentabilidade-com-as-exportacoes-XJ1038347

[4] https://www.angonoticias.com/Artigos/item/68811/prodesi-rende-mais-de-usd-29-milhoes-em-exportacoe

[5] https://www.bna.ao/Conteudos/Artigos/lista_artigos_medias.aspx?idc=15419&idsc=15428&idl=1

[6] https://www.angonoticias.com/Artigos/item/68824/balanca-comercial-regista-superavit-de-usd-83819-milhoes

[7] https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/economia/comercio-entre-china-e-angola-recupera-24-no-1o-semestre-apos-forte-quebra-em-2020_n1343994

[8] https://www.angop.ao/noticias/economia/angola-e-turquia-reforcam-balanca-comercial/

[9] Cfr, the most recent elements on the sectoral participation in the GDP that demonstrate the immense and reinforced weight of the oil sector. https://www.bna.ao/Conteudos/Artigos/lista_artigos_medias.aspx?idc=15907&idsc=15909&idl=1